2015: Beware the upstart

This spring, I'm seeking inspiration on what lies ahead from three different perspectives: Stephen Hawking, Pope Francis and Nigel Farage...

Everything will change after the General Election
May 6th could look like this: The Tories are forced into bed with Farage in order to govern. Scottish Labour is wiped off the map by the SNP. The Greens replace the Lib Dems on a wave of 3 million new voting teenagers. And in an attempt to unite the disenfranchised, Russell Brand launches the Revolution Party, the UK’s first internet only political party. OK, I made up the Russell Brand one although Nesta predicts that the internet is where a new party will emerge.

The Catholic Church could be split apart by radical reform
Pope Francis is a maverick pontiff. He’s already delivered a withering broadside to the Vatican bureaucratic elite and 2015 will be a big year for his reform and modernisation agenda, culminating with this autumn’s Synod on the family. Could we see the Church break up if he can’t persuade his Cardinals to embrace fundamental change on sexuality and divorce? The Pope has the final vote here.

Artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race
Last month Stephen Hawking predicted that technology would eventually become self-aware and supersede humanity, as it developed faster than biological evolution. I’ve always believed that science would save us from ourselves but is there a chance it might end up being our undoing as man is usurped by robots?

Random thoughts perhaps but I see the work of upstarts in all of them - upstart politics; upstart leaders; upstart technology - youthful challengers turning the status quo on its head. And challengers spell danger for those feeling comfortable or complacent.

There’s nothing new for business here, for sure. Most sectors have their challenger brands. Some of us have read Eating The Big Fish and want to be a Richard or Stelios.

And the danger of complacency isn’t new either. Just ask Dave Lewis. Who would have predicted that Tesco would be so badly squeezed by Aldi, Lidl and Waitrose? But then, who would have predicted a global corporation pulling a film because a few hackers threatened them? And who expected an Islamic Caliphate?

Can business leaders really afford to ignore the danger of the upstart? As constant change is the new norm, as the rate of uptake of new technology and new social behaviours gets faster and faster, so the proliferation of new challengers will grow and grow.

What do I take out of these three examples?

1. Have a Vision if you want people to follow you
The failure of the British political establishment is in part because they don’t know how to present a simple, compelling and vivid picture of the world they want to create. Do we know what we’re voting for anymore? Having a vision is no less critical for successful businesses. Increasingly so, as people seek to differentiate brands by understanding WHY you do business, why you get out of bed in the morning.

2. Become your own Upstart
Don’t wait for others to usurp your place in the market. Take the lead of Pope Francis, the CEO of a global corporation. He is an upstart leader who rejects complacency and challenges his business from within to become relevant to his flock, his customers; existing, new and lapsed.

3. Innovate or die
OK, the Day of the Robots isn’t imminent but for business in the here and now, innovation is key. We need to move on from the ‘efficiency mode’ of the Austerity years. Cost cutting will only get you so far and it won’t make you stand out from the crowd. Make innovation your new business as usual. Only then will you offset the danger of the lurking upstart.

And if you need inspiration for your business challenges this year, my advice is to look up, look to the world around you and find your own Stephen, Francis and Nigel. Look somewhere new, to find the real breakthrough solutions.

Stephen Mooney is Managing Director of brand strategy consultancy Nerve www.thenerveagency.com. Read more from him in our Clubhouse.