Is time up for Google (or Apple)?

The Roman empire, the British empire – they rise, they fall, nothing surer. And equally sure is the fact that for a certain period of time no one on the planet could imagine they would ever, ever decline. So it is with Tech companies.

When I entered the workforce in the late 70’s (I wasn’t the typical 8 year old) IBM reigned supreme.

They were the Big Blue. The all-knowing computer in “2001 A Space Odyssey” (a year that felt so far away no science fiction was too fanciful) was called HAL – IBM but one letter back, get it? Then came Microsoft – the operating system developed under the noses of IBM – and they took over the planet.

The challenger brand, Apple, that made both the PC and the operating system, had burned bright but seemed to have burned out as every computer was sold with Microsoft pre-loaded. Never mind ‘as rich as Rockerfeller’ it became ‘as rich as ‘Bill Gates’ – unimaginable wealth wasted on some computer nerd (who has turned out to be a great philanthropist all credit to him). Apple came back with the Messianic Steve Jobs at the helm again.

He transacted – by revamping the core PC range in some cool designs – and he transformed – with the all-conquering ‘i’ prefix. iPod, iPhone, iStore, iPad now iCloud. Software, Apps, retail and devices working seamlessly in one closed loop.

But then 13 years ago some Standford nerds launched this thing called Google. Whole new ball game. Right now they seem poised to take over the universe unless Apple can stop them.

They used to be friends, Schmidt sat on the board of Apple, but they fell out when Google went mobile and started to invade Apple’s turf (hard to avoid). Apple are older, bigger and riding high right now having beaten off Samsung in the patent battle but they have lost their leader and Google seem a relentless innovation machine with a very different philosophy that might fit the mood of the times better. Google are open – they create stuff, get it out there in beta version and let the world in on it.

Apple don’t do beta and they don’t do open – we all have to play by their rules. They have almost become the Big Brother they parodied in their famous 1984 Super Bowl ad (aimed at IBM) and yet… the stuff is so cool and the Retail offer is unbelievable. Wouldn’t you just love it if Apple ran every retail store with staff that just cannot do enough for you and don’t care whether you buy anything or not (as long as you have bought into Apple). So they are a kinda nice Big Brother.

But can you imagine a world without Google? Can anything stop them? And they are open, welcoming, inclusive and by their own words – just short of creepy. Yes, that’s right, in their own words they intend to stop “just short of creepy’ in using information about you based on what you do on the internet to make money. Perhaps there is no issue here – we accepted the bargain of commercial television – great shows but we get to flog you stuff – so why not Google – great search etc but we get to allow the highest bidder to flog you stuff in real time, not just at your desk but anywhere you go.

Who will win – Apple or Google? Or are we at the moment of inflexion, the moment where we might imagine a winner but never two losers? The moment, therefore, that marks the time when both will start to lose out like every other empire in history.

I hope you weren’t expecting an answer because I honestly don’t have one. My sense of history tells me they will go the way of IBM and Microsoft but who knows – maybe this time it is different.

If one or both continue to thrive then I believe it will be because they find (or perhaps have already found) a sense of purpose that transcends form. That’s because I am of the old school that says brands never die, only products. In that regard Apple seem better placed having reinvented themselves twice arguably three times, whereas Google are still very dependent on Search. But maybe I’m missing something.

If they both fade it will because they miss the next technology wave and/or because some player comes out of left field. Who could that be? I asked an old American friend of mine, Patrick Meyer, a guy who has totally reinvented himself as being at the forefront of marketing technology (Google him on your iPhone). He suggested Amazon might be the left field player.

What I do know is that whoever tells you branding and marketing works pretty much the same in this Tech age is the rear end of a horse. Technology is changing everything and to be a major Tech brand is a whole different level of marketing challenge working at a way faster pace.

Steve Jobs was at heart a designer – and design ain’t marketing, it is much more important because its DNA is based on passion not money.

Read more from Mark Sherrington.