Follow Me Follow You

Follow Me Follow You

Two themes come to mind as I write this blog on a weekend full of world-class sport. The first is whether patience is still a virtue and the second is the growing sharing of thoughts and experiences among consumers.

This July should see confirmation that the UK economy is no longer in depression with the level of GDP back above its previous high in Q2 2008. Such a period of economic depression has seen some major shifts in consumer attitudes and behaviour in the face of falling incomes and spending power.

Prioritising saving and debt repayment rather than borrowing has been a feature of recent years, and only now is this pattern of financial behaviour showing some signs of a recovery with greater borrowing confidence.

Driving this mood has been the remarkable rise in confidence over the past 12 months and the return of a feel-good factor as unemployment worries have dissipated and inflation expectations are reducing. People generally feel optimistic about the economy and the state of their household finances. Financial well-being is much improved.

UK Feel-Good Index 2001-14


Source: GfK NOP / European Commission / JGFR

Such a feel-good mood is reflected in a surge of financial activity in prospect as consumers adjust to a post-austerity period of growth. Demand for savings, investment and borrowing products as reflected in the JGFR/GfK UK Financial Activity Barometer is at its highest in 8 years. For many people the years of austerity have forced them to review their own budgeting and become savvier in making their money go further.

Savings, investment, borrowing and debt repayment activity June 2002 -2014


Source GfK NOP / JGFR

The borrowing patience of consumers during the 5 years of austerity is being tested by rising house prices, and by attractive offers on a range of vehicles to replace those taken out as a result of the cash-for-clunkers scheme. 22% of consumers intend to borrow in the next 6 months, double the proportion of Q3 2013. More of this borrowing is of a positive type, for spending on assets, goods and services, rather than to tide people over or to repay existing debt.

Car merchandising has been a great marketing success story of the past 2 years which shows no sign of abating. Demand for car purchasing plans, which have transformed the financing of car purchases, is at its highest since Q2 2006.

Estate agents will be hoping that lenders can find more funds to lend out this summer as housing market confidence is at levels last seen in the 2005-7 boom years. Then quarterly mortgage approval levels were around the 800,000 level; current quarterly approval levels are unlikely to exceed 400,000 mortgages with demand at around the 600,000 level.

House prices look set to climb higher this summer as more cash buyers are around, although some may be looking abroad as the rising pound makes overseas property attractive again. In the UK the Q3 FAB shows it is the South West where demand is greatest. It’s a young world in many respects, although the young are exhibiting much greater maturity in their attitude to finances.

This may partly reflect the greater financial burden being placed upon them by student debt but may also be the result of feeling more financially included as they can access and respond to financial information more easily online and particularly through smartphones and tablets.

The Q3 FAB continues to reflect the growing intentions of young people to save regularly – far more than in previous years. Getting on the property ladder is still a goal for many and regular saving for a deposit is essential. Family finance is the new generation game with a jump in the proportion of adults intending to pay into a Junior Isa or Child Trust fund, up from 10% a year ago to a record 18%.

As always marketers look to the young for new trends and the values of the young. With brands having to pay more attention to their corporate social responsibilities (CSR), there is an increasing need to consider not just their customers but their followers on social media.

In the highly charged world of retail banking the debate is intensifying about the future direction of travel. More people use a variety of remote devises to access their accounts and transact; but often in conjunction with other channels. This is leading to the digital bank model gaining traction over branch based banks.

One feature not taken into account in reviews of retail banks is of the ‘conscious customer’ and of the perception of the brand in the community. Research by GfK for JGFR found that the Millenials is the age cohort most aware of their bank’s CSR activities. By main financial services provider (aka main bank) the leaders are Co-operative Bank, Bank of Scotland and Barclays and at the foot of the table Firstdirect, who normally stand at the head of retail bank customer tables.

'My main financial services provider is very involved in charitable and socially responsible activities'


Source: JGFR/GfK NOP

At a time when people want to follow in ever greater numbers, the challenge for marketers is to understand that the new emerging economy will be based more on saving/investment and doing good; and in engaging with the new breed of follower / customer (who may be local) keen to share their thoughts and experiences. The power of sport this weekend has exhibited the strongest consumer engagement message. Follow you follow me.


John Gilbert is chief executive of JGFR and chairman of charity Cricket for Change. Read more from him in our Library.

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