The marketing landscape has evolved dramatically in recent years, with many brands directing increased investment toward online channels like social. This short-termist shift has sometimes stemmed from assumptions about TV advertising being unpredictable or too risky an investment. We now know this is nonsense. The data increasingly proves that TV advertising is the least risky and most profitable investment an advertiser can make – and that it delivers in both the short and long term.
Evidence for this can be found in the recent Profit Ability 2 study, commissioned by Thinkbox from an econometrics supergroup of Ebiquity, EssenceMediacom, Gain Theory, Mindshare, and Wavemaker UK. It analysed £1.8 billion in media spend and revealed a striking truth about marketing's risk landscape. TV, far from being a high stakes channel, demonstrates remarkable and reassuring predictability with returns varying by less than 50%. Meanwhile, supposedly ‘safe’ channels like paid social and online display can fluctuate wildly with variances up to 90%.
The numbers don’t lie
Let’s consider what this means. Take a £75,000 weekly TV investment as an example. It will typically deliver predictable returns of between £95,000 and £225,000, with an average of £160,000 (so the average return is over double the investment).
The same £75,000 investment in social media averages just an £82,000 return, with potential outcomes ranging from as little as £8,000 up to £160,000 at absolute best.
In other words, the best-case scenario for social media equals TV's average day.
Why has unpredictability been embraced in the blind hope of getting better results? How have we created a culture where burning through budgets with minimal returns is somehow acceptable - provided the metrics dashboard shows movement? Somewhere along the way we seem to have abandoned marketing’s chief responsibility: building brands without blowing budgets.
Breaking down the barriers
The barriers formerly associated with TV advertising are rapidly dissolving. The rise of AI assisted tools mean creative costs are declining while entry points are more accessible - a third of TV advertisers in 2024 invested less than £50,000. Meanwhile, BVOD (Broadcast Video on Demand) bridges the speed gap between TV and digital, offering swift creative swaps and granular targeting without sacrificing TV's brand-building power.
Add to this that the immense data behind Profit Ability 2 is publicly available through the Media Mix Navigator tool allowing organisations to define their preferred risk tolerance and access specific data tailored to their category and budget. With predictable outcomes, increasingly accessible entry points, and the speed of BVOD, TV stands tall as a genuine, lower-risk investment for brands seeking sustainable growth.
Thinkbox are partners of The Marketing Society
